Growth and projections in agribusiness

Crescimento e projeções no agronegócio

The Brazilian agriculture sector has a very promising scenario in the coming years. The Agribusiness Projections report – Brazil 2016/2017 to 2026/2027, carried out by a group of technicians from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA) and Embrapa, points to a scenario of optimism and opportunities.

According to the predictions, grain production is expected to increase from 232 million tons in 2016/2017 to 288.2 million tons in 2026/27. This growth indicates an increase of 56 million tons to the current production of Brazil, with an increase of 24.2%.

The trends indicated by MAPA allow identifying possible trajectories and structure future visions of agribusiness in the global context so that the country continues to grow and conquer new markets.

But do you know which crops will grow in production the most? How much should the planting area increase? What factors will stimulate production? See below a complete overview of the predictions of growth of Brazilian agricultural production.

Get to know the projections for the different cultures

Corn, soybeans and wheat should continue to strengthen grain growth. These estimates are consistent with the expansion of grain production in the last ten years, a period in which production increased by 63% (Conab, 2017)

Crescimento e projeções no agronegócio - robustec

Among the states, Mato Grosso should continue to lead the expansion of corn and soybean production in the country, with increases of 41.5% and 37.1%.

The most dynamic products of Brazilian agribusiness should be cotton, corn, pork and chicken meat, and soybeans. Among the fruits, the highlights are for mango, grape and melon.

The estimated meat production (beef, pork and poultry) is 7.8 million tons (29.8%) up on 2015/16. The chicken should be the highlight in the segment of animal protein, with a 34.6% increase in production. The growth prediction for pork is 31.3% and 21% for bovine meat, according to the prognosis presented in the study.

Follow estimate of increase of planted area

The projected area is to grow from 72.1 million hectares in 2015/16 to 83.1 million in 2025/2026, an increase of 11 million hectares. This expansion is concentrated in soybean (10 million ha), sugar cane (1.8 million ha), wheat (456 thousand ha) and corn (698 thousand ha). Some crops should lose area, such as rice, potatoes, coffee, beans and oranges, but this reduction should be offset by gains in productivity.

Find out what are the main factors driving this growth

The main factor driving growth in agricultural production should be productivity. While the expected increase in production is 30%, the planted area expansion estimate is 12.7%. Therefore, the yield of the crops will be higher even if the cultivated area advances at a slower rate.

The national market and international demand will be the main growth drivers for most products. This advance, however, will require investments in infrastructure, research and financing.

The domestic market should remain the most important source of growth, due to the high proportion of grains and meat consumed in the country.

Despite the difficulties in the international economy, the growing demand for food in populous and fast-growing countries, such as China, should ensure good prospects for Brazilian agribusiness in the upcoming years. Brazil should continue to be, along with the United States, one of the largest producers and exporters of food in the world.

As we have seen, Brazilian agriculture will continue to grow exponentially in the coming years. The scenario is promising and shows many opportunities for the man that works on the field.

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